This was interesting today… using the corrected methodology either we have already passed the peak or it will happen real soon… I have no doubt that we are really really close to the maximum capable output but we may be able to bump at this level for several years. The problem with all those “NEW” finds that people want to publish is the fact that they take years to get to market in useable quantities. During that time waiting the amount that we already have found will continue to drop… most people forget that every field found has a decline curve… that means the peak production for any well or field will happen at the beginning and then it will drop off… some a lot faster than others… the new “HUGE” fields being found that your read about – the SHALE fields have a rapid decline curve… go look them up and see the time verses production on them…
All this leads to the fact that the cost of energy needs to stay high so we can force investment and development of alternatives… we don’t need wild swings when we need years to develop new alternatives…
– WD0AJG
[recreading]